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Emissions pricing is no longer a distant regulatory threat, it’s a line item on the shipping industry’s balance sheet. In 2025 alone, the EU’s emissions schemes are set to add more than USD 6 billion in costs. And this is just the beginning.
Over the next five years, a wave of regional and global carbon measures will reshape how shipping is financed, traded, and operated. By 2030, the combined cost from EU ETS, FuelEU, UK ETS and the IMO’s greenhouse gas fuel intensity (GFI) measure could exceed USD 50 billion in a business as usual scenario. If additional countries follow the EU’s lead and implement their own maritime emissions taxes, the total industry bill could double, reaching USD 100 billion annually.
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From 2028, the IMO GFI measure is expected to enter into force, putting a price on carbon intensity across the global fleet. This adds an estimated USD 22 billion in 2028, rising to USD 33 billion by 2030.
The figures in the article represent a business-as-usual scenario, meaning that the current fuel mix, vessel types, and sailing patterns are assumed to continue unchanged through 2030. No increase in the use of alternative fuels such as biofuels or the adoption of emission-reducing technologies and measures has been assumed.
Several countries are evaluating the opportunity of taxing shipping emissions. If these new schemes materialise, the global carbon bill for shipping could increase substantially.
.webp)
A key question remains: will regulators view the IMO’s measure as sufficient, or will regional and national systems continue to layer costs on top? The answer could determine whether shipping faces a coordinated global carbon price, or a patchwork of overlapping taxes that fragment the market.
For shipowners, charterers, and traders, carbon pricing is no longer a compliance topic, it’s a commercial variable. Each voyage now carries a measurable and tradable emissions cost that directly affects TCE and competitiveness.
For financiers, insurers, and cargo owners, carbon exposure is fast becoming a new class of operational and credit risk. The ability to quantify, benchmark, and manage emissions will soon be as critical as assessing freight rates or bunker exposure.
At Siglar Carbon, we track, estimate and validate emissions and their related cost exposure across hundreds of voyages every day.
Our analytics make it easy to:
Because in the next decade, carbon intelligence will be just as valuable as market intelligence.
.webp)
Emissions pricing is no longer a distant regulatory threat, it’s a line item on the shipping industry’s balance sheet. In 2025 alone, the EU’s emissions schemes are set to add more than USD 6 billion in costs. And this is just the beginning.
Over the next five years, a wave of regional and global carbon measures will reshape how shipping is financed, traded, and operated. By 2030, the combined cost from EU ETS, FuelEU, UK ETS and the IMO’s greenhouse gas fuel intensity (GFI) measure could exceed USD 50 billion in a business as usual scenario. If additional countries follow the EU’s lead and implement their own maritime emissions taxes, the total industry bill could double, reaching USD 100 billion annually.
From 2028, the IMO GFI measure is expected to enter into force, putting a price on carbon intensity across the global fleet. This adds an estimated USD 22 billion in 2028, rising to USD 33 billion by 2030.
The figures in the article represent a business-as-usual scenario, meaning that the current fuel mix, vessel types, and sailing patterns are assumed to continue unchanged through 2030. No increase in the use of alternative fuels such as biofuels or the adoption of emission-reducing technologies and measures has been assumed.
Several countries are evaluating the opportunity of taxing shipping emissions. If these new schemes materialise, the global carbon bill for shipping could increase substantially.
A key question remains: will regulators view the IMO’s measure as sufficient, or will regional and national systems continue to layer costs on top? The answer could determine whether shipping faces a coordinated global carbon price, or a patchwork of overlapping taxes that fragment the market.
For shipowners, charterers, and traders, carbon pricing is no longer a compliance topic, it’s a commercial variable. Each voyage now carries a measurable and tradable emissions cost that directly affects TCE and competitiveness.
For financiers, insurers, and cargo owners, carbon exposure is fast becoming a new class of operational and credit risk. The ability to quantify, benchmark, and manage emissions will soon be as critical as assessing freight rates or bunker exposure.
At Siglar Carbon, we track, estimate and validate emissions and their related cost exposure across hundreds of voyages every day.
Our analytics make it easy to:
Because in the next decade, carbon intelligence will be just as valuable as market intelligence.
