EU shipping emissions rose in 2025. The ships did not emit more. The reported increase comes entirely from vessels that entered the reporting rules in 2025; follow the same ships through both years and emissions fell. Below the CO₂ line, methane rose sharply as LNG dual fuel ships reached the water, and from 2026 that methane becomes billable, pushing the maritime EU ETS bill toward 100 million allowances. For owners and charterers, the headline MRV number is only the starting point. The exposure sits behind it.
The full storyThere are currently two suggested versions of how the maritime sector should be included in the EU ETS. We compare the two versions to demonstrate how each of them would the impact freight costs.
Newly suggested EU ETS amendments have the potential to strongly impact charterers and freight rates. The commercial operator’s requirement to pay the final carbon cost is enforced and the inclusion of emissions from the shipping industry is accelerated and expanded.
The EU ETS allowances have been traded above USD 100 every day since the start of February. At this level the carbon price could increase freight rates by 10-30%. We use four example voyages from the tanker segment to show how this carbon price could impact freight rates on intra EU voyages and on global EU voyages.
