EU shipping emissions rose in 2025. The ships did not emit more. The reported increase comes entirely from vessels that entered the reporting rules in 2025; follow the same ships through both years and emissions fell. Below the CO₂ line, methane rose sharply as LNG dual fuel ships reached the water, and from 2026 that methane becomes billable, pushing the maritime EU ETS bill toward 100 million allowances. For owners and charterers, the headline MRV number is only the starting point. The exposure sits behind it.
The full storyCarbon pricing is no longer a distant regulatory threat, as the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime will add an estimated USD 6.1 billion to industry costs in 2025 alone. The IMO’s Global Fuel Intensity (GFI) measure is set to drive up costs even further—shipowners and charterers could be staring down a combined carbon bill approaching USD 50 billion by 2030.
The Sovereign Carbon Initiative, implemented in Djibouti and Gabon, calculates the carbon cost as 50% of the total carbon footprint of a ship’s journey to or from Djibouti and Gabon, and the price is set at USD 17 per tonne of CO2e emissions. The principle behind the scheme is simple: those who pollute must pay.
Siglar's Head of Legal Affairs, Sinem Ogis, is back from an intense but important week at IMO MEPC and shares her reflections here.
