For shipowners navigating the new EU ETS regime, the first real financial deadline is fast approaching. By 30 September 2025, verified emissions from 2024 must be compensated by surrendering allowances to the authorities. For most, this is no longer a compliance conversation — it’s a financial one.

Yet many executives still lack clear answers to some essential questions:

• How many allowances will we need?
• What’s our expected exposure, and how much will that cost?
• Where do we buy allowances, and when should we act?
• Who in our organisation is responsible for purchasing?

“This isn’t just about reporting anymore,” says Sigmund Kyvik, CEO at Siglar Carbon. “This is about financial exposure and strategic timing. The best time to measure carbon cost is before you fix. The second-best is today.”

What’s at stake?

Breaking it down:

• You must surrender EU allowances (EUAs) for verified 2024 emissions.
• The deadline for surrendering is 30 September 2025.
• If you don’t, the fines are steep: An excess emissions penalty of €100 per tonne, on top of the original EUAs, which will still need to be surrendered.
• EUA prices are volatile, lately €70–90/tonne.
• A small fleet trading in and out of the EU could face a six- or seven-figure carbon bill.

To give you an idea of what EU ETS exposure might look like with the 2024 phase-in at 40%, here are two example voyages:

• A Santos–Rotterdam Panamax dry bulk roundtrip carried an estimated carbon cost of around $50,000, or roughly $1,100 per day.
• A crude cargo on a VLCC from Mongstad to Ningbo triggered over $210,000 in EUA costs — close to $1,000 per day across the voyage.

Add it up across your fleet, and the numbers grow quickly. For many shipowners, that’s the difference between a profitable fixture and a voyage in the red.

Is the cost being overlooked?

In some companies, the emissions exposure data hasn’t reached the finance or executive level, where it becomes part of cash flow planning or chartering strategy.

That’s where mistakes happen:

• Allowances aren’t budgeted
• The purchase is left too late
• Chartering decisions are made without understanding carbon cost
• The cost ends up with your company rather than passed on to your customers
• Listed companies fail to meet their legal reporting obligations

“For owners with tight margins, a surprise carbon bill would erode your earnings, and even wipe out the profits from a voyage,” Siglar CPO, Geir Olafsen, warns. “That’s avoidable with the right numbers at hand.”

Want to avoid the admin?

Siglar doesn’t just show you the numbers, we can handle the full ETS process for you:

✔️ Calculate your fleet’s EUA requirement based on real voyages

✔️ Track and forecast costs

✔️ Guide EUA procurement strategy

✔️ Provide validated statements to ensure counterparties pay correctly

✔️ Handle EUA purchases, and receive, hold and surrender EUAs

✔️ Ensure timely compliance and avoid penalties

“We take care of everything from emissions analytics to surrender logistics,” says Lene Haga, Senior Commercial Operator. “You stay focused on running the fleet. We make sure the carbon bill doesn’t surprise you.