EU shipping emissions rose in 2025. The ships did not emit more. The reported increase comes entirely from vessels that entered the reporting rules in 2025; follow the same ships through both years and emissions fell. Below the CO₂ line, methane rose sharply as LNG dual fuel ships reached the water, and from 2026 that methane becomes billable, pushing the maritime EU ETS bill toward 100 million allowances. For owners and charterers, the headline MRV number is only the starting point. The exposure sits behind it.
The full storyEU is racing to reach an agreement on the EU ETS directive in time for 2023 – Let’s take a look at what has happened so far.
The outcome of the latest International Maritime Organisation (IMO) meeting, MEPC 78, shows that progress is being made on GHG matters. EEXI, CII and SEEMP guidelines were finalized, and the Mediterranean Sea will be considered a Sulphur emission control area (SECA). However, no decision regarding zero emissions target in 2050 was taken at this point.
Deleting shipping’s phase-in period in the EU ETS would lead to a fivefold rise in carbon cost in the initial year. It will be a steep learning curve for commercial decision-makers who are influenced by carbon exposure. The added carbon cost to a commonly traded intra-EU tanker route would go from USD 14 000 to USD 70 000. This is a new type of exposure that the industry needs to get familiar with, says Siglar CEO Sigmund Kyvik.
