Scenario 1: Maritime compliance costs are no longer confined to regional regulation. Based on current policy timelines and market assumptions, the industry’s annual compliance bill could rise from around USD 2.7 billion in 2024 to more than USD 57 billion by 2032, with the IMO framework becoming the largest driver of future cost exposure.
The full storyThe countdown is on: By 30 September 2025, all shipowners with EU voyages must surrender their first batch of EU ETS allowances. But are you ready? Do you know what your carbon bill will be? Where to get allowances, and when? For many shipowners, the financial clock is ticking, yet the full cost remains off the radar.
Carbon pricing is no longer a distant regulatory threat, as the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime will add an estimated USD 6.1 billion to industry costs in 2025 alone. The IMO’s Global Fuel Intensity (GFI) measure is set to drive up costs even further—shipowners and charterers could be staring down a combined carbon bill approaching USD 50 billion by 2030.
The Sovereign Carbon Initiative, implemented in Djibouti and Gabon, calculates the carbon cost as 50% of the total carbon footprint of a ship’s journey to or from Djibouti and Gabon, and the price is set at USD 17 per tonne of CO2e emissions. The principle behind the scheme is simple: those who pollute must pay.
