Scenario 1: Maritime compliance costs are no longer confined to regional regulation. Based on current policy timelines and market assumptions, the industry’s annual compliance bill could rise from around USD 2.7 billion in 2024 to more than USD 57 billion by 2032, with the IMO framework becoming the largest driver of future cost exposure.
The full storyThe maritime emissions regulatory landscape is expanding fast. The Siglar Carbon Scheme Navigator puts the full picture in one place, expert-reviewed and free to use.
From 1 July, the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) becomes a new cost layer for shipping activity linked to the UK. While the regulation itself is not unexpected, the commercial implications are still widely underestimated.
The IMO's 84th Marine Environment Protection Committee could not finalise the Net-Zero Framework, but the substance of the week was the opposite of the headline. A clear majority of member states returned to the NZF as the basis for further negotiation, reversing the adjournment that derailed MEPC.ES2 in October 2025.
