EU shipping emissions rose in 2025. The ships did not emit more. The reported increase comes entirely from vessels that entered the reporting rules in 2025; follow the same ships through both years and emissions fell. Below the CO₂ line, methane rose sharply as LNG dual fuel ships reached the water, and from 2026 that methane becomes billable, pushing the maritime EU ETS bill toward 100 million allowances. For owners and charterers, the headline MRV number is only the starting point. The exposure sits behind it.
The full storyEmissions data may be shipping’s most underutilised commercial asset. It is still treated as a compliance requirement, while its biggest value is commercial. Over the past decade, the shipping industry has invested enormous effort in collecting, verifying and reporting emissions data. But what if compliance is only the beginning?
Scenario 1: Maritime compliance costs are no longer confined to regional regulation. Based on current policy timelines and market assumptions, the industry’s annual compliance bill could rise from around USD 2.7 billion in 2024 to more than USD 57 billion by 2032, with the IMO framework becoming the largest driver of future cost exposure.
The maritime emissions regulatory landscape is expanding fast. The Siglar Carbon Scheme Navigator puts the full picture in one place, expert-reviewed and free to use.
