Scenario 1: Maritime compliance costs are no longer confined to regional regulation. Based on current policy timelines and market assumptions, the industry’s annual compliance bill could rise from around USD 2.7 billion in 2024 to more than USD 57 billion by 2032, with the IMO framework becoming the largest driver of future cost exposure.
The full storyThe European Union proposes a basket of measures to decarbonise the maritime industry, which will influence freight rates in different ways. Shipping emissions will become a cost element in freight negotiations and a part of ship owners, brokers and cargo owners' everyday business.
The European Union’s “Fit for 55”-package proposes to decarbonize shipping by imposing a first-ever greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity limit on ship energy usage, a minimum tax on bunker fuels and a requirement to pay for shipping emissions in the emissions trading system (ETS) from 2023, with a full phase-in by 2026.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) adopts new short-term measures that require ships to combine a technical and an operational approach to reduce their carbon intensity. The operational Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) will highlight the charterers role in emissions reductions, but is it too weak, too slow? The IMO is already criticised for its selected method as well as its limited ambitions.
