Scenario 1: Maritime compliance costs are no longer confined to regional regulation. Based on current policy timelines and market assumptions, the industry’s annual compliance bill could rise from around USD 2.7 billion in 2024 to more than USD 57 billion by 2032, with the IMO framework becoming the largest driver of future cost exposure.
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The IMO’s Extraordinary Session was meant to anchor a global decarbonisation framework for shipping. Instead, it revealed just how politically and economically complex that mission has become. With the adoption of the Net-Zero Framework deferred, the centre of gravity in carbon regulation is shifting, from global negotiation rooms to regional markets.
Emissions pricing is no longer a distant regulatory threat, it’s a line item on the shipping industry’s balance sheet. In 2025 alone, the EU’s emissions schemes are set to add more than USD 6 billion in costs. And this is just the beginning.
