Scenario 1: Maritime compliance costs are no longer confined to regional regulation. Based on current policy timelines and market assumptions, the industry’s annual compliance bill could rise from around USD 2.7 billion in 2024 to more than USD 57 billion by 2032, with the IMO framework becoming the largest driver of future cost exposure.
The full storyOur CDO, Geir Olafsen, was recently asked to write a commentary for an ESG-themed issue of the Norwegian newspaper Finansavisa’s supplement, Kapital. He offered a clear-eyed view of why global climate action in shipping is stalling at the IMO and how regional initiatives, especially in the EU, are now shaping the path forward. To make these insights accessible to our international audience, we’re sharing an English version of his perspective on the regulatory shifts that will define the future of maritime decarbonisation.
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The IMO’s Extraordinary Session was meant to anchor a global decarbonisation framework for shipping. Instead, it revealed just how politically and economically complex that mission has become. With the adoption of the Net-Zero Framework deferred, the centre of gravity in carbon regulation is shifting, from global negotiation rooms to regional markets.
